Transformation of the Aquaculture Value Chain in Kenya

The Kenyan aquaculture sector has undergone a profound structural transformation over the last decade, evolving from a subsistence-based activity into a sophisticated commercial ecosystem. This growth is most evident in the cage-based segment of Lake Victoria, which saw an explosive 1,300-fold increase in production volume between 2014 and 2024.

High Value Crop Commercialization and Women’s Empowerment in Sub-Saharan Africa: Panel Insights Reinforced by Double Machine Learning and Quasi-Experiments

We examine how agricultural commercialization relates to women’s empowerment across Ethiopia, Malawi, Tanzania, Uganda, and Nigeria using LSMS-ISA household panels (2010–2020), a modified A-WEAI (5DE), two-way fixed effects, Double Machine Learning, and propensity-score matched difference-in-differences. Entry into markets (extensive margin) is consistently associated positively with empowerment where identification is strongest: PSM-DiD shows noticeable gains when households begin selling any crops—especially in Ethiopia, Malawi, Tanzania and Nigeria—and positive correlations when existing sellers add cash crops to sales in Malawi (Ethiopia marginal).

Social Learning and Peer Influence in Smallholder Commercialization

This paper examines how peer behavior influences small-scale producers’ (SSPs) decisions to purchase inputs and sell outputs in six sub-Saharan African countries. Using comparable nationally representative panel data and a correlated random effects framework, we assess the extent and shape of social interactions driving input and output market participation.

Evidence Review: Investments and Policies in Agrifood Chain Linkages

Agrifood systems are increasingly shaped by activities beyond the farm gate, yet the midstream and
downstream segments—known as the hidden middle—remain severely under-researched. This paper
presents a review of 276 impact evaluations and systematic reviews to assess what is currently known
about effective policies and programs targeting the hidden middle in low- and middle-income
countries. While 52% of the studies focus on smallholder-oriented interventions and 21% on public
goods, only 27% address the hidden middle, and nearly half of these concern contract farming—a
mechanism designed to bypass intermediaries rather than strengthen them. Most intervention
categories in the midstream and downstream are supported by fewer than four rigorous studies.
Moreover, services like storage, training, and market information are evaluated almost exclusively in
the context of producers, ignoring the micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) that dominate
the hidden middle. The paper concludes that addressing this evidence gap is essential to designing
inclusive, resilient agrifood systems and calls for a shift in research and policy focus toward the actors
and services that connect farms to markets and consumers.

Fortalecimiento del Eslabón Oculto: Lecciones de política derivadas de la investigación global sobre la transformación del segmento intermedio

El Eslabón Oculto, el segmento intermedio de los sistemas agroalimentarios que conecta a los productores con los
consumidores mediante la agregación, el almacenamiento, la logística y el procesamiento, ha sido largamente
ignorado tanto en la investigación como en las políticas. No obstante, es allí donde se produce la mayor parte del
valor agregado, del empleo y de las ganancias en eficiencia. Cuando los actores del segmento intermedio
funcionan adecuadamente, los sistemas alimentarios son más resilientes, los mercados más estables y los
pequeños productores obtienen acceso predecible a compradores e insumos. Cuando no lo hacen, los costos
aumentan, las pérdidas se incrementan y las oportunidades de crecimiento inclusivo se disipan.